They had an average of 6.7 yards to go, so their average play on second down also got a new set of downs. On second down, the Falcons averaged 6.9 yards per play.The Falcons had 114.0% DVOA on first down. Their average play on first down got a new set of downs. On first down, the Falcons averaged 11.1 yards per play.So what on earth happened to the Falcons offense? The problem was third down. This is just one of the many ways in which last night's result was exceptional. A team that does that will almost always win the game. The Falcons gained 7.5 yards per play compared to 5.9 yards per play for the Patriots, and they won the turnover battle. Some of that is the Falcons not getting the ball in overtime, but that's only eight plays (plus the DPI penalty). The Patriots offense ran 93 plays in Super Bowl LI, not counting those cancelled by penalty. You do not often get a game where the less efficient team runs over twice as many plays as the other team. Occasionally, you will get a game where the more efficient team runs fewer plays. They kept the ball, they had success on offense, they ran more plays. If one team runs more plays than the other team, it's usually because the first team was better for most of the game. Normally, that's not a problem, because normally the two teams run a roughly similar number of plays. How can this be? It's because of the rare circumstances of this game. The Falcons came out of this game with a much better DVOA rating than the Patriots: DVOA (with opponent adjustments) It turns out the ratings say the opposite. In "Audibles at the Line," Tom Gower guessed that the DVOA ratings would say that Atlanta was fortunate to be in this game at the end. In the meantime, we'll break down the DVOA numbers here.
We'll have a Clutch Encounters soon from Scott Kacsmar that runs down just how absurdly rare a 25-point comeback is. It was one of the most incredible games in NFL history. It's been 15 hours since the end of Super Bowl LI and I think I'm still recovering.
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